Goodbye PC games, hello console and handheld games.

Drain · Jan 31, 2006

I was curious about the state of PC games market vs. console games market and made a little research to see if everything is so bad. It is not that bad. It is worse.

Some facts and forecasts:
- Global video game market is projected to grow from $25.4 bil. in 2004 to $55 bil. in 2009
- PC game market is going to shrink from $771 mil. in 2004 to $655 mil. in 2009 (europe, middle east, africa)
- In the US, pc market will decline over the same period from $1.1bil. to $930 mil.
- console games will grow from about $6.23 bil to $8.3 bil.
- in 2005 console games market was approximately 7 times as large as PC games market.
- wireless games will experience the fastest growth rate, increasing from $281 million in 2004 to $2.1 billion in 2009
- online/portable/console/wireless/handheld games are going to grow quickly. PC games are going to decline.

sources:
http://npd.com/dynamic/releases/press_060117a.html
http://www.pwc.com/extweb/industry....3e1885256ce8006c6ed6?opendocument&vendor=none
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/oct2005/id20051007_999151.htm?chan=tc
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3144672
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/troywolverton/10204379.html
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/news/?id=10962

Unfortunately this may become a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors after seeing such reports would be reluctant to invest in PC games oriented companies, which means less new PC titles, less sales. Apparently many companies still develop PC titles just to diversify revenue sources. This is nothing new, of course.

Drain · Jan 31, 2006

Oh, and just to tease all of you, here is gamespy consumer survey results:
"Types of Games Played Most Often: Console game players say that they most often play: action games (51 percent); driving/racing games (50 percent); sports games (47 percent); and role-play/adventure games (35 percent).
Computer game players say they are most likely to play: puzzle/board/card games (36 percent); action games (36 percent); driving/racing games (34 percent); and sports (32 percent). "

Note that RPGs are absent in the list of PC games

From another source: Best selling video game genres in 2004: 30.1% - action, 17.8% sports, 9.6% - shooters, 9.5% - children&family entertainment, 9.4% - racing, 9% - RPG.
http://www.theesa.com/facts/sales_genre_data.php

bryce777 · Jan 31, 2006

And how many are crossplatform things like oblivion and kotor?

It seems pc gaming is basically dead.

Levski 1912 · Jan 31, 2006

Even more depressing is the 16% of M games sold. But the whole thing just blows.

FrancoTAU · Jan 31, 2006

It's more of a self fulfilling prophecy than anything else with the shift over. Of course, we can always hope that the console manufacturers lose so much money that they go away.

I wish they'd separate out the portable consoles and mobile phone games. It's not really a direct competitor and skews the #s a bit.

Also, does this include subscriptions to online games?

Drain · Jan 31, 2006

FrancoTAU said:
Also, does this include subscriptions to online games?

As far as I know, PC games figures include only retail sales.

bryce777 · Jan 31, 2006

How to become a millionaire in game development:
First, you start off as a billionaire. then you go into game development. In no time at all, you'll be a millionaire!

Cimmerian Nights · Jan 31, 2006

bryce777 said:
It seems pc gaming is basically dead.

Hopefully just the mainstream commercial shit.

Tintin · Jan 31, 2006

- in 2005 console games market was approximately 7 times as large as PC games market.

Um, Drakron?

Xi · Jan 31, 2006

Yeah, for some reason all the developers can think to release on PC these days are MMORPGs. Im hoping these developers will commit sepuku for the sake of us all.

Gotta love Bethesda for not totally selling out, no Multiplay at all, and the few other developers that really aim for the PC market. Hell, any market that is worth a few billion isn't going away any time soon.

Levski 1912 · Jan 31, 2006

http://www.gamershell.com/articles/884.html

Old, yet still so damn relevant.

bryce777 · Jan 31, 2006

Tintin said:
- in 2005 console games market was approximately 7 times as large as PC games market.

Click to expand...

Um, Drakron?

Tintin, you idjit. It's obvious he meant there are more people with PCs than there are people with xbox360s.

Also, even when you look at sales you need to break it down by console. I seriously doubt xbox alone has more sales than pcs....

Drakron · Jan 31, 2006

Yes, also the PC market is potencial larger that the console market.

What you see if sale figures of games and there have been a de-investment on PC titles.

Greatatlantic · Jan 31, 2006

The problem with those articles is they seem to base their analysis on NPD data, which even the NPD has recently admitted didn't tell the entire story. It tracks only brick and mortar retail. When more people are subscribing to World of Warcraft then Xbox live, thats missing the picture entirely.

I read The Street article, and it does a good job corresponding this discrepancy and why PC gaming is not out of the picture... even though it said the latest console could be bought for $150 while a gaming PC costs $2000 (not true). Anyways, PC games still make up a sizable portion of revenues, even as the number of platforms increases. Earlier, there was just Nintendo, Playstation, and Gameboy. Now, its Nintendo, Playstation, Xbox, Gameboy Advance, Nintendo Dual Screen, Playstation portable, N-Gage (OK, this one is a bit of a joke), and you get the idea. Meanwhile, with services like Direct2Drive and Steam, PC games have a way to be sold that doesn't involve retail. For example, Half Life 2 is rumored to have sold roughly half their copies online. And that means an even higher margin of profits, since brick and mortar retailers can take quite the cut for themselves.

Basically, PC gaming isn't going anywhere, and still remains profitable if the company invests in it wisely. And I expect Microsoft is going to notice sometime soon that PC games made them money, while Xbox hasn't. So, I expect that trend to reverse itself soon. NPD has already said it will include MMO subscription fees and online sales in future PC analysis.

Dhruin · Jan 31, 2006

You get a slightly different picture if you slice the figures differently.

That "console games" figure of $6.23B includes handhelds -- which simply aren't the same thing as a console. Take out the handheld sales and you are left with $4.7B for console game sales, which declined 14% on 2004. Not quite the "7x" bigger than PC quoted.

If you consider this is made up of PS2, Gamecube, Xbox and Xbox 360 you get down to the fact that there is one console mega-platform (PS2) and several smaller platforms that are individually smaller than the PC. No doubt that is changing as the XBox 360 gathers pace etc etc.

Then of course, NPD admits their figures suck.

"While we have seen retail sales of PC games decrease for several years now, we know from talking to consumers about their online gaming behaviors that playing games on the PC, whether it's via online casual sites or through MMO subscription play, has been increasing," said NPD analyst Anita Frazier in a statement. "As a result, NPD will be launching its new definition of the US PC game market this spring, which will include a combination of sales from retail, downloads, and both casual and MMO subscription revenues. We expect this will add significant dollars to the PC game market size."

The suits probably don't look past the headline numbers but it isn't quite as bad as some pictures paint.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060115-5983.html
http://www.gamespot.com/pc/rpg/worldofw ... id=6142571

deus · Jan 31, 2006

BSD IS DYING!!!
Apple must switch to IA32 or die.
Cisco is buying Nintendo.
In Korea, only old PC games die.
It's just the same shit, different day. PC gaming will go away when people stop using them, end of story.

Drain · Jan 31, 2006

Greatatlantic said:
The problem with those articles is they seem to base their analysis on NPD data, which even the NPD has recently admitted didn't tell the entire story.

The problem with those articles is that investors will listen to them.

Oh, and I wrote "7 times" before I found out that some of the figures refer to US market, not global one. My fault. Taking into consideration Dhurin's correction the figure becomes approximately 2.8 times. :roll:

Greatatlantic · Jan 31, 2006

Drain said:
Greatatlantic said:

The problem with those articles is they seem to base their analysis on NPD data, which even the NPD has recently admitted didn't tell the entire story.

Click to expand...

The problem with those articles is that investors will listen to them.

Investment in the gaming industry doesn't occur in a vacuum by clueless people with only NPD data available to them. A lot of companies can look at the NPD data, then look at their own profits from PC gaming and go right on making them. What you might see is some companies try some cross platform releases or console side projects, such as Spartan: Total Warrior, release how incredibly stupid that is, and go right back to making a PC game.

LlamaGod · Jan 31, 2006

where the crap is strategy games

bryce777 · Jan 31, 2006

Well, I do order almost everything I get online. i wonder how many other people do the same?

Mostly, it's because I hate compusa and they have an increasingly poor selection.

I would imagine pc gamers might buy online more often because they are probably more savvy in general and lots of consolers either don't have credit cards or else their parents buy them for them at walmart.

FrancoTAU · Jan 31, 2006

If you look at financials of public companies like EA, Take Two, etc than PC is solidly the #2 "game system." PS2 runs away with the #1 spot, than PC, than much further down you get the other consoles.

Plus... yeah.... it stands to reason that a significant amount of PC users probably buy games through their PCs. Outside Bargain Bin hunting, i buy most shit through Amazon myself.

Drain · Jan 31, 2006

Greatatlantic said:
The problem with those articles is they seem to base their analysis on NPD data,

Well, how about PricewaterhouseCoopers data?
http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/industry....63E1885256CE8006C6ED6?opendocument&vendor=#VG
Kagan Research data?
http://research.kagan.com/keo/databooksdetailpage.aspx?DatabookID=79
Marketresearch.com data?
http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=329074&xs=r
DFC Intelligence data?
http://www.dfcint.com/news/prapril52004.html

Tintin · Jan 31, 2006

Tintin, you idjit. It's obvious he meant there are more people with PCs than there are people with xbox360s.

I thought that much was common sense.....

bryce777 said:
I seriously doubt xbox alone has more sales than pcs....

The fact that people don't buy Pcs just for gaming purposes, and the fact that the xbox competes with sony and nintendo's products probably helps....

Voltare · Jan 31, 2006

6

With my rpg, i'll be testing out the mac market and the linux market, as my game engine will allow simple cross-plat development.( just change the headers on 3 files, heh)

for a hobbyist-indie like myself, we feel if one of us can break through,we can compete with those big guys, cause they toss money at problems, instead of figuring out why the problem is there.(case in point----the shadows in oblivion, let's not figure this out....let's send 2 guys to soil erosion school!).

and pretty soo, one of us is gonna break through----and it's gonna shock everyone.

With Gusto · Jan 31, 2006

So?

Is this really news? And how does it relate to roleplaying games? The genre has never been too much in the limelight barring a few breakout mainstream hits (mostly from Japan). It's not the most easily accessible form of gaming; of course action and sports titles are going to be more dominant in the market.

Dhruin said:
You get a slightly different picture if you slice the figures differently.

That "console games" figure of $6.23B includes handhelds -- which simply aren't the same thing as a console.

You can slice it anyway you want to try and prove a point; no shit the figures come out differently. Believe whatever you want, but they're all part of the same market. A person could purchase a PSP or a PS2, a DS or a GameCube, Final Fantasy Advance (Gameboy) or Age of Empires III. The handheld market has exploded, and are becoming as prominent as consoles. I could be setting here playing my DS, or playing PS2. Not that I'm saying the DS is going to usurp Sony's home consoles, but handhelds should not be overlooked. Maro Kart DS (released in November) has outsold, or at least matched the sales of, the Xbox360 (also released in November).

Taking out handheld sales figures is as stupid as taking out sales in foreign markets (which happens alot to try and "prove points"). It's all a piece of the pie.

Well, I kind of went off there. Oops.

Goodbye PC games, hello console and handheld games.

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